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OECD Economic Outlook 117 long-term scenarios — Trend employment rate, as a percentage of population aged 15-74 by country

Long-run economic scenarios (to 2100) are produced every 2-3 years to look at factors influencing the global economy that play out over many decades. Different vintages look at a different set of scenarios described in an associated publication. Selected series from these scenarios are available here for individual...

Countries reporting
48
Highest
98.29
Luxembourg
Lowest
36.88
South Africa
Median
75.04
Years covered
111
1990–2100
Data points
6,857

What the numbers show

OECD Economic Outlook 117 long-term scenarios — Trend employment rate, as a percentage of population aged 15-74 is currently reported for 48 countries. The highest value is 98.29 in Luxembourg; the lowest is 36.88 in South Africa.

The median across all reporting countries is 75.04, and the mean is 74.65.

The gap between the highest and lowest reporting country is a factor of about 3.

Over the past decade 47 countries rose and 1 fell. The largest increase was in China (up 5.4%), and the largest decrease in South Africa (down 0.0%).

OECD Economic Outlook 117 long-term scenarios — Trend employment: full country ranking

#Country LatestYear 10-year changeTrend
1 Luxembourg 98.29 2100 up 0.2% rising
1 Estonia 92.28 2100 up 5.3% rising
2 Japan 91.39 2100 up 0.9% rising
2 Netherlands 89.49 2100 up 0.6% rising
3 Denmark 88.17 2100 up 1.5% rising
4 Greece 87.42 2100 up 2.7% rising
5 Indonesia 87.03 2100 up 1.9% rising
5 Lithuania 75.43 2100 up 3.0% rising
5 Croatia 70.31 2100 up 0.4% rising
6 Sweden 84.54 2100 up 3.6% rising
7 New Zealand 83.66 2100 up 0.9% rising
8 Iceland 83.13 2100 up 1.1% rising
8 Latvia 74.77 2100 up 4.9% rising
9 Thailand 81.99 2100 up 0.3% rising
10 Ireland 81.57 2100 up 1.5% rising
10 Slovenia 73 2100 up 1.4% rising
11 Switzerland 80.83 2100 up 1.3% rising
12 Germany 78.5 2100 up 1.5% rising
13 Finland 77.63 2100 up 2.1% rising
13 Türkiye 67.41 2100 up 1.8% rising
14 Bulgaria 77.61 2100 up 0.8% rising
14 Poland 64.97 2100 up 3.4% rising
15 Portugal 77.22 2100 up 0.7% rising
16 Italy 76.88 2100 up 2.3% rising
17 China 76.37 2100 up 5.4% falling
18 Australia 75.89 2100 up 0.3% rising
19 United States of America 75.66 2100 up 0.3% rising
20 Peru 75.58 2100 up 1.0% rising
21 Israel 75.31 2100 up 1.4% rising
22 OECD 74.58 2100 up 0.9% rising
23 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 73.56 2100 up 1.0% rising
24 Hungary 73.42 2100 up 1.4% rising
25 Austria 73.11 2100 up 1.8% rising
26 Norway 71.92 2100 up 0.6% rising
27 India 71.28 2100 up 1.1% rising
28 Czechia 70.08 2100 up 3.0% rising
29 Canada 69.94 2100 up 0.2% rising
30 France 69.89 2100 up 0.5% rising
31 Mexico 69.51 2100 up 1.1% rising
32 Chile 69.13 2100 up 1.6% rising
33 Spain 67.39 2100 up 0.8% rising
34 Argentina 65.38 2100 up 1.2% rising
35 Belgium 65.33 2100 up 1.4% rising
36 Brazil 65.17 2100 up 0.9% flat
37 Colombia 59.72 2100 up 0.4% flat
38 Costa Rica 59.54 2100 up 1.6% flat
39 Romania 55.24 2100 up 0.7% falling
40 South Africa 36.88 2100 down 0.0% falling

Regions and income groups

Aggregates are excluded from the country ranking above so that a region can never outrank a country.

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OECD Economic Outlook 117 long-term scenarios — Trend employment by country. Statizoid, drawing on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Retrieved 14 September 2026, from https://economy.statizoid.com/stat/oecd-economic-outlook-117-long-term-scenarios-trend-employment-rate-as-a-percentage-of/

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About this data

Indicator
OECD Economic Outlook 117 long-term scenarios — Trend employment rate, as a percentage of population aged 15-74
Source
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Licence
OECD Terms and Conditions (attribution required)
Coverage
64 places, 6,857 data points, 1990–2100
Last refreshed

Long-run economic scenarios (to 2100) are produced every 2-3 years to look at factors influencing the global economy that play out over many decades. Different vintages look at a different set of scenarios described in an associated publication. Selected series from these scenarios are available here for individual OECD, accession and G20 economies. A breakdown of the global economy by regions (following World Bank definitions) is also provided.